Market participants remain cautious with EUR/USD trading in narrow ranges before Wednesday's FOMC announcement
Technical indicators show mixed signals,1000 USDT to USD with the 4-hour chart breaking below the 100-period SMA while daily oscillators remain bullish
Key support and resistance levels identified for potential breakout scenarios
The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated modest recovery during Tuesday's trading session after briefly dipping toward the 1.1280 support area. Price action remains contained within established boundaries as market participants refrain from taking significant positions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision. The pair's movement reflects the broader market's uncertainty about future monetary policy direction.
Recent economic data from the United States, including stronger-than-expected employment figures and services sector performance, has provided some support for the US Dollar. These indicators have temporarily alleviated concerns about economic contraction, creating a modest headwind for the EUR/USD pair. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to limit USD strength, resulting in the current equilibrium.
Technical analysis reveals important developments on the 4-hour chart, where the pair recently crossed below the 100-period Simple Moving Average for the first time in over a month. While this development typically suggests bearish momentum, the daily chart's oscillators continue to indicate positive momentum, creating conflicting signals. Traders should await confirmation of directional bias before committing to significant positions.
Critical resistance levels to monitor include the 100-period SMA near 1.1380, followed by the psychological 1.1400 barrier. A decisive break above these levels could open the path toward 1.1425-1.1430 resistance, with potential to test higher targets at 1.1500 and the April peak near 1.1575. Such movement would require substantial fundamental catalysts, potentially from the FOMC meeting outcome.
On the downside, immediate support appears at last week's low of 1.1265, which represents a crucial pivot point. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal continuation of the corrective phase from recent highs, with subsequent targets at 1.1200 and the 200-period SMA around 1.1140. Market participants should monitor volume and momentum indicators for confirmation of either directional scenario.
Technical Perspective on EUR/USD
The current technical setup presents traders with a challenging environment characterized by conflicting signals across different timeframes. While shorter-term charts show signs of potential weakness, the broader trend remains intact. This divergence suggests that market participants should exercise patience and wait for clearer signals before establishing directional positions.
Key factors that could influence the pair's direction include the Federal Reserve's policy stance, economic data releases, and developments in global trade relations. The coming sessions leading up to and following the FOMC announcement will likely provide greater clarity about the pair's medium-term trajectory.
